Insight

Blockbuster Budget turns the page on recent uncertainty

Whatever your views on Rachel Reeves’s Budget, the conviction of the Chancellor’s delivery was a welcome antidote to the doom and gloom of the past few weeks.

 

  • The scale of the tax and spending programme unveiled by Labour in this week’s Budget is unsurpassed in recent history, but markets appear to have reacted calmly – so far.

 

  • Fears that wealth creation and entrepreneurialism would be hit hard were only partly realised, with smaller-than-expected rises in capital gains tax.

 

  • With no rise in direct payroll taxes and a surprise extension of the fuel-duty freeze, we can expect consumer confidence to recover in the short term.

 

  • While employers face a significant rise in their National Insurance burden, this should be partly offset by certainty over corporation tax rates in the medium to long term.

 

  • Overall, the chancellor has done a good job of explaining how the government plans to promote growth and address declines in public services.

 

  • Following a period of negativity and uncertainty, the Budget lays the groundwork for UK equities (and smaller companies in particular) to continue their upward trend.

 

This much-needed clarity around the government’s tax and spending plans – as well as a potential pathway to economic growth – should encourage buyers to return to the UK equity market following the recent hiatus.

 

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This document has been prepared by River Global Investors LLP (“RGI”). RGI is authorised and regulated in the United Kingdom by the Financial Conduct Authority (Firm Reference No. 453087) and is registered in England (Company No. OC317647), with its registered office at 30 Coleman Street, London EC2R 5AL. The value of investments and any income generated may go down as well as up and is not guaranteed. An investor may not get back the amount originally invested. Past performance is not a reliable guide to future results. Changes in exchange rates may have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of investments. This article does not constitute an investment recommendation and should not be used as the basis for any investment decision. Opinions, estimates and projections in this article constitute the current judgement of the author as of the date of this article. Please note that individual securities named in this article may be held by the Portfolio Manager or persons closely associated with them and/or other members of the Investment Team personally for their own accounts. The interests of clients are protected by operation of a conflicts of interest policy and associated systems and controls which prevent personal dealing in situations which would lead to any detriment to a client.